NATGAS dominated by bulls lifting the market higher throughout the day
Henry Hub Natural Gas (NATGAS) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
NATGAS finished the week 4.09% higher at 3.157 after gaining $0.190 (6.4%) today on high volume. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 3.089, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.077 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (NATGAS as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.175 (5.84%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.215. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for NATGAS.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The contract managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 3.113 for the first time since December 28, 2018. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on September 17, 2018, NATGAS gained 3.96% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 2.939 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Decisive Up Move" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Natural Gas. Out of 341 times, NATGAS closed lower 58.06% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 58.94% with an average market move of -0.67%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are WHEAT gaining 1.17% and SUGAR closing 0.79% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been CRUDE closing -1.18% lower. Read more