GOLD still stuck within tight trading range
Gold (GOLD) Technical Analysis Report for Feb 13, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GOLD ended Thursday at 1579.0 gaining $9.9 (0.63%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 1573.6, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $8.1 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOLD as at Feb 13, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $13.2 (0.84%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $15.7. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly lower than usual for GOLD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1563.7 and 1581.7 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The contract managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 1572.2. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on February 6th, GOLD gained 0.23% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 1564.4 where further sell stops could get activated. As prices are trading close to February's high at 1598.5, upside momentum might accelerate should GOLD mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Gold. Out of 160 times, GOLD closed lower 53.75% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 55.00% with an average market move of -0.26%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are SUGAR losing -4.03% and NATGAS closing -1.14% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been COFFEE closing 3.4% higher and SILVER gaining 0.95%. Read more