GOLD finds buyers around 1459.8 for the forth day in a row
Gold (GOLD) Technical Analysis Report for Dec 02, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GOLD finished Monday at 1468.2 losing $2.2 (-0.15%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOLD as at Dec 02, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been $11.8 (0.8%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $14.5. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for GOLD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1457.1 and 1472.9 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. After moving higher in the previous session, the contract closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on October 9th, GOLD lost -0.80% on the following trading day. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hanging Man.
The market was bought again around 1459.8 after having seen lows at 1459.1, 1460.4 and 1459.5 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 1472.9 where further buy stops might get activated. Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 1459.1 where further sell stops might get triggered. Further selling could move prices lower should the market test November's nearby low at 1453.7.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Low close to previous three Lows" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Gold. Out of 14 times, GOLD closed lower 57.14% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 71.43% with an average market move of -0.31%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are COFFEE gaining 1.76% and NATGAS closing 1.3% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SUGAR closing -1.47% lower and WHEAT losing -0.78%. Read more