GOLD slides to lowest close since August 2nd
Gold (GOLD) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 08, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, GOLD finished the week -3.75% lower at 1459.8 after losing $9.6 (-0.65%) today on low volume. Today's close at 1459.8 marks the lowest recorded closing price since August 2nd. Closing below Thursday's low at 1461.4, the market confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $4.4 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOLD as at Nov 08, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $16.9 (1.15%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $16.2. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for GOLD.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle.
Prices broke below the key technical support level at 1467.0 (now R1), which is likely to act as resistance going forward. The last time this happened on Tuesday, GOLD actually gained 0.48% on the following trading day.
With another close below the lower Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong downward momentum in the short-term. A rally back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day though could signal a potential change in momentum that might lead to a correction back up towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 1494.2.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the seven market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close below the lower Bollinger Band" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Gold. Out of 157 times, GOLD closed higher 50.32% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.24% with an average market move of 0.47%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are SUGAR gaining 1.32% and CRUDE closing 0.56% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SILVER closing -1.83% lower and COFFEE losing -0.52%. Read more