GOLD breaks below Wednesday's low
Gold (GOLD) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GOLD finished Thursday at 1295.8 tanking $13.7 (-1.05%). The bears were in full control today, moving the market lower throughout the whole session. Closing below Wednesday's low at 1300.6, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $8.1 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOLD as at Mar 14, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $17.8 (1.36%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $12.6. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for GOLD.
Notwithstanding a strong opening the contract closed below the prior day's open and close, forming a bearish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Black Candle. The last time a Black Candle showed up on Monday, GOLD actually gained 0.66% on the following trading day.
GOLD closed back below the 50-day moving average at 1307.5. After having been unable to move above 1311.6 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 1310.3.
While still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Break through SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Gold. Out of 93 times, GOLD closed higher 56.99% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.99% with an average market move of 0.39%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are WHEAT gaining 1.05% and CORN closing 0.93% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SILVER closing -1.77% lower and COFFEE losing -0.45%. Read more