GOLD still stuck within tight trading range
Gold (GOLD) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GOLD ended the week 0.13% higher at 1287.9 after edging higher $0.8 (0.06%) today. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GOLD as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $8.7 (0.68%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $12.2. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for GOLD. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 1280.2 and 1298.0 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Gravestone Doji which is known as bearish pattern and one neutral pattern, the Doji. The last time a Gravestone Doji showed up on December 6, 2018, GOLD actually gained 0.88% on the following trading day.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 1280.2 (S1). After having been unable to move lower than 1286.7 in the previous session, the contract found buyers again around the same price level today at 1287.0.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 1298.0 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the nearby swing low at 1280.2 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Close near low of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Gold. Out of 422 times, GOLD closed higher 51.90% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.40% with an average market move of 0.25%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NATGAS gaining 6.76% and WHEAT closing 1.15% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been CRUDE closing -1.15% lower. Read more