GASOLINE finds support at 50-day moving average
RBOB Gasoline (GASOLINE) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 07, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
GASOLINE finished the week 3.02% higher at 1.2135 after losing $0.0185 (-1.5%) today. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.2139, RBOB confirmed its breakout through the prior session low after trading up to $0.0183 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GASOLINE as at Aug 07, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.0422 (3.43%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.0454. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for GASOLINE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Hikkake Pattern.
After trading as low as 1.1956 during the day, the contract found support at the 50-day moving average at 1.2036. The last time this happened on July 30th, GASOLINE actually lost -1.91% on the following trading day. The market closed back below the 20-day moving average at 1.2263.
Although Gasoline is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 1.2646 where further buy stops could get triggered. Further buying might move prices higher should the market test July's close-by high at 1.2813.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing High" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for RBOB. Out of 712 times, GASOLINE closed higher 54.49% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 53.65% with an average market move of 0.57%.
With three out of the other four Energy Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are HEATOIL losing -2.13% and GOIL closing -1.7% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been NATGAS closing 3.48% higher. Read more