GASOLINE closes lower for the 2nd day in a row
RBOB Gasoline (GASOLINE) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 2nd day in a row, GASOLINE ended the week 3.6% higher at 1.4077 after losing $0.0139 (-0.98%) today. Trading $0.0253 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing below Thursday's low at 1.4087, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $0.0140 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (GASOLINE as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $0.0521 (3.67%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.0650. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for GASOLINE.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar. The last time this happened on December 12, 2018, GASOLINE actually gained 4.05% on the following trading day.
After spiking up to 1.4468 during the day, Gasoline found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 1.4462. After having been unable to move above 1.4400 in the prior session, RBOB ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 1.4468.
Though GASOLINE is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for RBOB. Out of 35 times, GASOLINE closed higher 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after three trading days, showing a win rate of 54.29% with an average market move of 0.48%.
With three out of the other four Energy Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are CRUDE losing -1.15% and HEATOIL closing -0.68% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been NATGAS closing 6.76% higher. Read more