DXY runs into sellers again around 97.350
Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, DXY finished the week -0.15% lower at 97.300 after edging higher $0.090 (0.09%) today on low volume. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (DXY as at Jul 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.205 (0.21%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $0.658. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for DXY.
Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 97.665 (R1). After having been unable to move above 97.335 in the previous session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, missing to move higher than 97.350. The last time this happened on Monday, DXY lost -0.08% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 97.810 where further buy stops might get triggered. Selling could speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 96.790 where further sell stops might get activated.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "High close to prior High" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Dollar Index. Out of 629 times, DXY closed higher 51.19% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.46% with an average market move of 0.12%.