CRUDE stuck within tight trading range
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 03, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CRUDE finished the week 5.66% higher at 40.32 after edging higher $0.03 (0.07%) today on low volume. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Jul 03, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been $0.66 (1.63%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.08. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CRUDE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 39.05 and 40.74 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
During the whole day, prices traded within the prior day's range, unable to trade above the previous day's high or below the prior day's low forming an Inside Bar. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Hanging Man which are both known as bearish patterns. The last time a Bearish Spinning Top showed up on Wednesday, CRUDE actually gained 1.46% on the following trading day.
The contract ran into sellers again today around 40.50 for the third trading day in a row after having found sellers at 40.74 in the previous session and at 40.58 two days ago.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 40.74 where further buy stops might get triggered. Further buying could move prices higher should the market test June's close-by high at 41.63.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hanging Man" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Oil. Out of 58 times, CRUDE closed higher 55.17% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after six trading days, showing a win rate of 62.07% with an average market move of 0.22%.
With three out of the other three Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NATGAS gaining 1.36% and SILVER closing 0.27% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more