CRUDE breaks back above 20-day moving average
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Jun 29, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CRUDE ended Monday at 39.63 gaining $1.47 (3.85%) on low volume. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Friday's high at 39.35, the market confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $0.54 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Jun 29, 2020):
Monday's trading range has been $2.39 (6.3%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $2.24. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CRUDE.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bullish Outside Bar. Despite a weak opening the contract managed to close above the prior day's open and close, forming a bullish Engulfing Candle. Additionally, one bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
Oil managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 38.42. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on May 5th, CRUDE actually lost -4.41% on the following trading day. After having been unable to move lower than 37.79 in the previous session, CRUDE found buyers again around the same price level today at 37.50.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the close-by swing high at 41.63 where further buy stops might get activated.
Among the 10 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 20" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Oil. Out of 153 times, CRUDE closed higher 51.63% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after two trading days, showing a win rate of 58.17% with an average market move of -0.11%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NATGAS gaining 5.5% and COFFEE closing 3.43% higher. On the flipside the worst performer has been GOLD closing -0.04% lower. Read more