CRUDE finds buyers at key support level
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 4th day in a row, CRUDE ended Thursday at 55.70 losing $0.38 (-0.68%). Today's close at 55.70 marks the lowest recorded closing price since November 29, 2019. Closing below Wednesday's low at 56.03, Oil confirmed its breakout through the previous session low after trading up to $1.26 below it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Jan 23, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.50 (2.67%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.59. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently strongly higher than usual for CRUDE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hammer.
After trading down to 54.77 earlier during the day, the market bounced off the key technical support level at 55.08 (S1). The failure to close below the support could increase that levels importance as support going forward. When prices bounced off a significant support level the last time on January 15th, CRUDE gained 0.84% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 59.78.
Although still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "4 Consecutive Lower Closes" stand out. Its common bearish interpretation has been confirmed for Oil. Out of 71 times, CRUDE closed lower 63.38% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 59.15% with an average market move of -1.00%.
With five out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are CORN gaining 1.15% and COFFEE closing 1.02% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SUGAR closing -0.63% lower and SILVER losing -0.25%. Read more