CRUDE finds support at 200-day moving average
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 14, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CRUDE ended Tuesday at 58.14 gaining $0.05 (0.09%). Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Jan 14, 2020):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.00 (1.72%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.41. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CRUDE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
After trading as low as 57.72 during the day, the market found support at the 200-day moving average at 57.83. After having been unable to move lower than 57.91 in the prior session, the contract found buyers again around the same price level today at 57.72. The last time this happened on January 10th, CRUDE actually lost -1.74% on the following trading day.
Crossing above the lower Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their downward momentum in the short-term and might now be heading back up towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 60.78.
While Oil is currently in a short-term downtrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Bounce off SMA 200" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Oil. Out of 25 times, CRUDE closed higher 60.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.00% with an average market move of -0.31%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are SILVER losing -0.92% and NATGAS closing -0.51% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been WHEAT closing 1.38% higher and SUGAR gaining 1.13%. Read more