CRUDE closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Nov 08, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CRUDE ended the week 2.15% higher at 57.44 after gaining $0.37 (0.65%) today on low volume. Today's close at 57.44 marks the highest recorded closing price since September 23rd. Trading up to $1.32 lower after the open, Oil managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Nov 08, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $1.72 (3.01%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.56. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CRUDE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 55.76 and 57.88 where it has been caught now for the whole last trading week.
One bearish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Hanging Man. The last time a Hanging Man showed up on June 19th, CRUDE actually gained 5.12% on the following trading day.
After trading as low as 55.76 during the day, the market found support at the 100-day moving average at 55.99. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 57.47 (R1), the contract closed below it after spiking up to 57.48 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 57.88 where further buy stops could get triggered.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Hanging Man" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Oil. Out of 52 times, CRUDE closed higher 57.69% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 61.54% with an average market move of 0.53%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are SILVER losing -1.83% and GOLD closing -0.63% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been SUGAR closing 1.32% higher and CORN gaining 0.44%. Read more