CRUDE closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Sep 10, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CRUDE ended Tuesday at 57.87 losing $0.18 (-0.31%). Trading $0.73 higher after the open, Oil was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the previous day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Sep 10, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $1.56 (2.69%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.84. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CRUDE.
After moving higher in the previous session, the market closed lower but above the prior day's open today, forming a bearish Harami Candle. The last time this candlestick pattern showed up on July 31st, CRUDE lost -5.88% on the following trading day. Additionally, two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Spinning Top and the Bearish High-Wave Candle which are both known as bearish patterns.
After trading down to 57.20 earlier during the day, the contract bounced off the key technical support level at 57.33 (S1). The failure to close below the support might increase that levels importance as support going forward.
Crossing below the upper Bollinger Band, prices have lost at least some of their upward momentum in the short-term and could now be heading back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 55.62.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Trading close to July's high at 60.98 we might see further upside momentum if potential buy stops at the level get triggered.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish High-Wave Candle" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Oil. Out of 35 times, CRUDE closed higher 71.43% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 57.14% with an average market move of 0.39%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NATGAS losing -0.95% and GOLD closing -0.88% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been COFFEE closing 2.98% higher and CORN gaining 2.34%. Read more