CRUDE breaks back above 20-day moving average
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 19, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CRUDE ended Monday at 56.11 gaining $1.26 (2.3%). The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Friday's high at 55.58, Oil confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.74 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Aug 19, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been $1.53 (2.78%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.95. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CRUDE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The market managed to close back above the 20-day moving average at 55.33 for the first time since August 13th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on August 13th, CRUDE actually lost -3.14% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 56.32 during the day, the contract found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 56.23.
Although still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Buying could speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 57.38 where further buy stops might get triggered. As prices are trading close to August's high at 57.90, upside momentum could accelerate should CRUDE mark new highs for the month.
Among the 11 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Oil. Out of 327 times, CRUDE closed higher 51.07% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.57% with an average market move of 0.25%.
With six out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are CORN losing -1.64% and SUGAR closing -1.5% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more