CRUDE misses to close above 200-day moving average
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 13, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, CRUDE ended Tuesday at 56.73 surging $1.95 (3.56%) on high volume. This is the biggest single-day gain in over a month. Closing above Monday's high at 55.18, the contract confirmed its breakout through the previous session high after trading up to $2.29 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Aug 13, 2019):
Tuesday's trading range has been $3.26 (5.96%), that's far above the last trading month's daily average range of $1.94. Weekly volatility is also higher, being way above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CRUDE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The market managed to close back above the 50-day moving average at 56.18 for the first time since July 31st. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on July 29th, CRUDE gained 2.26% on the following trading day. After spiking up to 57.47 during the day, Oil found resistance at the 200-day moving average at 57.21.
CRUDE shows weakness in the short-term (in accordance with its long-term downtrend) with only the medium-term trend still being bullish.
As prices are trading close to August's high at 57.99, upside momentum could accelerate should the contract mark new highs for the month.
Among the nine market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Price broke through Technical Resistance R1" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Oil. Out of 330 times, CRUDE closed higher 51.21% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.67% with an average market move of 0.25%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NATGAS gaining 2.29% and COFFEE closing 2.14% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been CORN closing -4.04% lower and SILVER losing -0.66%. Read more