CRUDE closes below its opening price unable to hold early session gains
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for May 15, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, CRUDE ended Wednesday at 62.13 gaining $0.47 (0.76%). Trading $0.14 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. The last time this happened on Monday, CRUDE actually gained 1.35% on the following trading day. Ending the day with an indecisive close, neither buyers nor sellers were able to gain control during the session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at May 15, 2019):
Wednesday's trading range has been $0.35 (0.56%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.51. Weekly volatility is also lower, being below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly lower than usual for CRUDE.
Two candlestick patterns are matching today's price action, the Bearish Hikkake Pattern and the Bearish Spinning Top which are both known as bearish patterns.
After having been unable to move above 62.11 in the previous session, Oil ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 62.29.
Although the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Buying could accelerate should prices move above the close-by swing high at 63.32 where further buy stops might get activated. As prices are trading close to May's high at 63.93, upside momentum could speed up should CRUDE mark new highs for the month.
Among the six market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Bearish Spinning Top" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Oil. Out of 224 times, CRUDE closed higher 56.70% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after four trading days, showing a win rate of 55.36% with an average market move of 0.09%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NATGAS losing -1.69% and SUGAR closing -0.9% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been COFFEE closing 0.97% higher and CORN gaining 0.2%. Read more