CRUDE rises to highest close since November 12, 2018
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 14, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 4th day in a row, CRUDE finished Thursday at 58.53 gaining $0.19 (0.33%). Today's close at 58.53 marks the highest recorded closing price since November 12, 2018. Trading up to $0.35 lower after the open, the contract managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. The last time this happened on February 28th, CRUDE actually lost -2.62% on the following trading day. Closing above Wednesday's high at 58.48, Oil confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to $0.26 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Mar 14, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $0.74 (1.27%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $1.29. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for CRUDE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
With another close above the upper Bollinger Band, prices are confirming their strong upward momentum in the short-term. A drop back into the Bollinger Band on the next trading day although might signal a potential change in momentum that could lead to a correction back down towards the center of the Bollinger Bands at 56.69.
While still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Technical Indicators based market condition "Close above the upper Bollinger Band" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Oil. Out of 134 times, CRUDE closed lower 52.24% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 56.72% with an average market move of -0.55%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are WHEAT gaining 1.05% and CORN closing 0.93% higher. On the flipside the worst performers have been SILVER closing -1.77% lower and GOLD losing -1.04%. Read more