CRUDE fails to close above 50-day moving average
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
CRUDE finished the week 7.02% higher at 51.70 after losing $0.62 (-1.19%) today. Trading $1.03 higher after the open, the contract was unable to hold its gains as the bears took control ending the day below its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Jan 11, 2019):
Friday's trading range has been $2.13 (4.07%), that's slightly below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.47. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CRUDE.
In a volatile session, prices traded above the prior day's high as well as below the previous day's low, forming a bearish Outside Bar.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 50.86 (S1). After spiking up to 53.31 during the day, Oil found resistance at the 50-day moving average at 52.65. After having been unable to move lower than 51.37 in the prior session, the market found buyers again around the same price level today at 51.18. The last time this happened on Tuesday, CRUDE gained 4.76% on the following trading day.
While CRUDE is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this could just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Further buying might move prices higher should the market test December's close-by high at 54.88.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 50" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Oil. Out of 39 times, CRUDE closed higher 56.41% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 64.10% with an average market move of 1.33%.
With seven out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are NATGAS gaining 6.91% and WHEAT closing 1.16% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more