CRUDE closes above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure
Crude Oil (CRUDE) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 10, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 8th day in a row, CRUDE finished Thursday at 52.32 edging higher $0.16 (0.31%) on high volume. Today's close at 52.32 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 13, 2018. Trading up to $0.81 lower after the open, Oil managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices failed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (CRUDE as at Jan 10, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.41 (2.7%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $2.46. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for CRUDE.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 50.86 (S1). After having been unable to move above 52.58 in the prior session, the market ran into sellers again around the same price level today, failing to move higher than 52.78. The last time this happened on Tuesday, CRUDE actually gained 4.76% on the following trading day.
While the contract is experiencing a short-term uptrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bearish.
Further buying could move prices higher should the market test December's nearby high at 54.88.
Among the four market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "8 Consecutive Higher Closes" stand out. Though it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Oil. Out of 2 times, CRUDE closed lower 100.00% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 100.00% with an average market move of -2.14%.
With seven out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are SUGAR losing -1.56% and CORN closing -1.31% lower. None of the markets managed to end the day in the green. Read more