COFFEE closes within previous day's range after lackluster session
Coffee (COFFEE) Technical Analysis Report for Jul 11, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
COFFEE finished Thursday at 107.05 gaining $1.05 (0.99%) on low volume. Trading up to $1.00 lower after the open, the market managed to reverse during the session as bulls took control ending the day above its opening price. Closing within the prior day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the previous day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COFFEE as at Jul 11, 2019):
Thursday's trading range has been $1.85 (1.74%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of $3.39. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been above the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for COFFEE. Prices continued to consolidate within a tight trading range between 105.35 and 109.25 where it has been caught now for the last three trading days.
Prices are trading close to the key technical support level at 105.30 (S1). Prices are trading close to the key technical resistance level at 108.20 (R1). The contract was bought again around 105.50 after having seen lows at 105.55, 105.35 and 105.30 in the last three trading sessions. Obviously there is something going on at that level. The last time this happened on March 19th, COFFEE actually lost -2.02% on the following trading day.
The trend is clearly bullish, showing an intact uptrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might accelerate should prices move above the nearby swing high at 109.25 where further buy stops could get triggered. Selling might speed up should prices move below the close-by swing low at 105.30 where further sell stops could get activated.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Price Action based market condition "Up Close near high of period" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as bullish, it has actually shown to be bearish for Coffee. Out of 426 times, COFFEE closed lower 54.93% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the short side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 60.09% with an average market move of -0.53%.
With four out of the other seven Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are NATGAS losing -1.4% and GOLD closing -1.08% lower. On the flipside the best performers have been WHEAT closing 3.17% higher and CORN gaining 2.21%. Read more