COCOA closes lower for the 3rd day in a row
Cocoa (COCOA) Technical Analysis Report for Aug 19, 2019 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving lower for the 3rd day in a row, COCOA ended Monday at 2191.0 edging lower $5.0 (-0.23%). Today's close at 2191.0 marks the lowest recorded closing price since March 22nd. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (COCOA as at Aug 19, 2019):
Monday's trading range has been $31.0 (1.42%), that's far below the last trading month's daily average range of $42.9. Weekly volatility is also lower, being way below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently higher than usual for COCOA.
The trend is clearly bearish, showing an intact downtrend in the short, medium and long-term.
Buying might speed up should prices move above the nearby swing high at 2228.0 where further buy stops could get activated. Selling might accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 2170.0 where further sell stops could get triggered. With prices trading close to this year's low at 2131.0, downside momentum might speed up should the market break out to new lows for the year.
Among the three market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the OHLC Patterns based market condition "Close to Swing Low" stand out. While it is usually interpreted as neutral, it has actually shown to be bullish for Cocoa. Out of 742 times, COCOA closed higher 53.23% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 52.96% with an average market move of 0.18%.
With four out of the other five Consumer Commodity Markets closing lower today, the ones that stand out on the negative side are ORANGE losing -2.95% and SUGAR closing -1.55% lower. On the flipside the best performer has been LUMBER closing 2.75% higher. Read more