BUND fails to close above 20-day moving average
Euro Bund (BUND) Technical Analysis Report for May 22, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, BUND ended the week -0.39% lower at 173.10 after gaining €0.06 (0.03%) today. Closing within the previous day's range, prices missed to decisively move beyond the prior day's trading range in a lackluster session.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BUND as at May 22, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been €0.59 (0.34%), that's below the last trading month's daily average range of €0.82. Weekly volatility is also lower, being slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently lower than usual for BUND.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the Bullish Spinning Top.
After spiking up to 173.52 during the day, the contract found resistance at the 20-day moving average at 173.33. The last time this happened on March 30th, BUND lost -0.16% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term uptrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bearish already.
Selling could accelerate should prices move below the close-by swing low at 172.26 where further sell stops might get triggered.
Among the five market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bearish Bounce off SMA 20" stand out. Although it is usually interpreted as bearish, it has actually shown to be bullish for Euro Bund. Out of 38 times, BUND closed higher 57.89% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 63.16% with an average market move of 0.32%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.14% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.09% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more