BUND closes higher for the 3rd day in a row
Euro Bund (BUND) Technical Analysis Report for Jan 23, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 3rd day in a row, BUND finished Thursday at 172.91 gaining €0.53 (0.31%) on high volume. Today's close at 172.91 marks the highest recorded closing price since December 3, 2019. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Wednesday's high at 172.50, the Bund confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to €0.59 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BUND as at Jan 23, 2020):
Thursday's trading range has been €0.76 (0.44%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of €0.73. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been slightly below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently slightly higher than usual for BUND.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The market managed to close above the 200-day moving average at 172.48 for the first time since January 3rd.
Crossing above the upper Bollinger Band for the first time since August 15, 2019, prices have shown unusually strong upward momentum in the short-term. This might either indicate a potential buying climax after which prices could head back down towards the mean of the Bollinger Bands at 171.67 or signal the beginning of a strong momentum breakout leading to even higher prices. The last time prices broke out above the upper Bollinger Band on August 15, 2019, BUND actually lost -0.37% on the following trading day.
Though still in a long-term downtrend, the short and medium-term trends both turned bullish already.
With prices trading close to this year's high at 173.22, upside momentum might accelerate should the 10-year bond be able to break out to new highs for the year.
Among the eight market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 200" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Euro Bund. Out of 35 times, BUND closed higher 65.71% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 65.71% with an average market move of 0.32%.
With four out of the other four Bond Markets closing higher today, the ones that stand out on the positive side are TBOND gaining 0.51% and TNOTE10Y closing 0.23% higher. None of the markets ended the day in the red. Read more