BOBL breaks back above 200-day moving average
Euro Bobl (BOBL) Technical Analysis Report for Mar 27, 2020 | by Techniquant Editorial Team
Moving higher for the 2nd day in a row, BOBL finished the week 0.58% higher at 135.24 after gaining €0.60 (0.45%) today on low volume. The bulls were in full control today, moving the market higher throughout the whole session. Closing above Thursday's high at 134.72, the contract confirmed its breakout through the prior session high after trading up to €0.64 above it intraday.
Daily Candlestick Chart (BOBL as at Mar 27, 2020):
Friday's trading range has been €0.77 (0.57%), that's slightly above the last trading month's daily average range of €0.72. Things look different on the weekly timeframe, where the market's trading range of the last week has been below the market's average weekly trading range. The longer-term, monthly volatility is currently significantly higher than usual for BOBL.
One bullish candlestick pattern matches today's price action, the White Candle.
The 5-year bond managed to close back above the 200-day moving average at 135.23 for the first time since March 16th. When this moving average was crossed above the last time on February 24th, BOBL gained 0.11% on the following trading day. Unable to break through the key technical resistance level at 135.30 (R1), the Bobl closed below it after spiking up to 135.36 earlier during the day. The failure to close above the resistance could increase that levels importance going forward.
While the market is currently in a short-term downtrend, this might just be a correction, as both the medium and long-term trends are still bullish.
Among the 12 market conditions that our pattern recognition engine identified today, the statistics for the Support/Resistance based market condition "Bullish Break through SMA 100" stand out. Its common bullish interpretation has been confirmed for Euro Bobl. Out of 31 times, BOBL closed higher 74.19% of the time on the next trading day after the market condition occurred. The optimal exit for swing trading this condition on the long side has been after 10 trading days, showing a win rate of 83.87% with an average market move of 0.28%.